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Warning Signs: Loren Thompson also warned that the civil sector might not be around to bail out defense, agreeing with AIA's John Douglass (see above). The trade deficit was $100 billion in 2006, reached $400 billion in 2004, is $800 billion today, and will surpass a trillion dollars in 2010, Thompson said. In the last five years, commercial manufacturing consistently has declined, “with 43,000 manufacturing jobs going away every day,” Thompson noted. “The US is de-industrializing” and this begs the question of what the nation would do to “mobilize for a prolonged conflict.”